- Austin, Texas #1
Projected total GMP growth, 2007-2012: 32.05%
The self-proclaimed 'Live Music Capital of the World' is booming, thanks in large part to Austin's high-tech industry (key employers include Dell, IBM and Apple) and the University of Texas, which provides the area with a steady stream of engineering talent. In addition to music, the city also has a thriving film industry. Its projected gross domestic product growth by 2012 is second only to Mobile, Ala., and first among the largest 100 metro areas in the country. Metro area Austin's population is expected to grow nearly 15% by 2012.
- Best and Worst Places to Buy a HouseBy: Danielle Babb
Whether you're looking for an investment property or a place to live, here's a look at the cities you should seek out and avoid in 2008.
The housing crunch and the excessive inventory -- exceeding 10 months on resale homes -- continues to take its toll on housing prices. But over the long term, housing is still a good investment. In fact, it's more than an investment; it's a home. Plus, you're not really saving anything by renting, as the costs of renting and owning are about equal (well, owning may be a little more). The tax benefits of home ownership far outweigh renting, too. With good housing prices in many great areas, this may indeed be the time to buy.
So now that I've convinced you this is a good time to buy a home, the next question is, Where do you buy one? No matter where you look, you should check out some basic economic fundamentals before buying. Is job growth stable in the area? Is income keeping up with inflation? Is crime above the national average? Is there a higher-than-average rate of foreclosures? These issues and others play a factor when deciding where to buy a house.
As a real estate investor and analyst, it's my job to provide buyers with qualified information on where to buy -- and where to stay away from. Here are my thoughts for 2008 based on the indicators noted above.
The Top Places to Buy
Whether you're an investor like me or you're looking to purchase that next move up, here are my picks for the best areas to buy a home:
Killeen, Round Rock, Austin, Texas: Killeen has the lowest average home price in any market in the nation while still maintaining quality. Round Rock and Austin have seen incredible job growth and very stable home prices despite the downturn nationwide. Jobs continue to grow here -- a factor for keeping inventory low and prices stable.
Mission Viejo, California: Mission Viejo has the lowest crime statistics in the nation. With no murders in 2007 and a low rate of violent crime, this is a good place to raise a family. Prices are relatively stable, and the job market in the nearby cities of Irvine and San Diego means there is consistent demand from job seekers.
Palm Beach, Florida: I'm taking a risk here because this area has been pummeled by foreclosures in 2007. But there are also a lot of boomers retiring, and Palm Beach is looking mighty attractive. If you don't like this high of a risk (which translates to great prices), check out Tampa or Clearwater in the same state.
Las Vegas, Nevada: Yes, Las Vegas has been hit hard by incoming investors, who watched their home values disappear and then left those homes empty. Las Vegas comes in quite high on the national foreclosure list, almost always within the top three metro areas. But there's an upside -- a very strong job market. In 2007, Las Vegas experienced a 12 percent increase in population, partly driven by retirees looking for Sunbelt states to move to. Coupled with low prices, we could see inventories reduced here, which would also stabilize prices. Be careful what you buy, but I like it.
Places to Avoid
And now for the places you definitely want to avoid:
Detroit, Michigan: The job market is in chaos. People are getting laid off left and right. National statistics seem to point to a significant problem with job loss and job income not keeping up with inflation. As a result, many nice neighborhoods are now abandoned due to people leaving their homes. Inventories exceed one year (under six months is what we want to see), and the foreclosure problem hit Detroit hard. With fewer jobs to support home purchases, I don't see Detroit turning around anytime soon.
Miami, Florida: Palm Beach is different than Miami, which sits in its gorgeous aqua water with half-built and abandoned condos, a shrinking job market, a tough time getting insurance against hurricanes and a job problem. Yes, you can get a good deal, but do this only if you don't need the appreciation from the home in the next decade.
Riverside/San Bernardino, California: Even those lucky homeowners that bought before the boom are feeling it now. Riverside and San Bernardino counties in Southern California consistently lead California in foreclosures and rank in the top three metro areas nationally. The prices have plummeted, and jobs in the area are scarce. People moved there due to lack of affordability in Orange and Los Angeles counties (where their jobs were), so it's a commuter's area. Now that prices in the two counties have dropped, people can live close to their jobs. Although I grew up in Riverside County, I could never recommend it to anyone looking to buy a home.
- Austin is the Best Place for Business in the U.S.Austin is the best place for business in the U.S., according to Moody's Economy.com Inc.
Moody's, an independent economic research firm, reported that the Austin -Round Rock
Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) earned the top spot over almost 400 metropolitan areas
tracked by the company's economic vitality index. In the last index, published in March 2007,
Austin -Round Rock MSA ranked seventh. - Austin Accolades Austin ranks as the 4th Best City in Overall Standard of Living by Expansion Management, June 2006
Austin ranks 2nd among the Top 10 Best Big Cities in the country by cnn.money.com, 2006
Austin ranks as the 3rd Smartest City in the country by Bizjournals.com, June 2006
Austin ranks in the Top 5 Smart Places to Live by Kiplingers Personal Finance and the Austin
Business Journal, June 2006
Austin ranked 28th in Best Places for Business and Careers by Forbes, May 2006
Austin ranks 2nd in the 50 Best Places to Live by Mens Journal, March 2006
Austin ranks 6th in the Top 10 Cities for Walking by Prevention magazine, August 2006
Austin ranks as the Best Place to Live in America for Hispanics by Hispanic magazine for the second
year in a row, August 2005
Austin ranks as the 2nd Best Place to Live for Moviemakers by Moviemaker Magazine, December 2005
Austin ranks 3rd Best Wireless Place to Live in America by Livescience.com, June 2005
Austin ranks 2nd among the 10 Best Places to Live, judging on financial, educational and quality of life
criteria by Money magazine, July 2006
Austin was included in the 8 Cheapest Places You'd Want to Live survey by Sperling's BestPlaces.com
and msn.com, July 2006
Austin ranks 2nd among the 50 Best Places to Live comparing the combinations of adventure,
attractiveness, and affordability by Mens Journal, April 2006
Austin was voted the Best Place to Live for Future Business Locations by Expansion Magazine, August 2006
Austin ranks 9th in the Top 10 Hot Cities for Entrepreneurs by Entrepreneur.com, September 2005
According to DogFancy Austin is one of the Top 10 Cities to Be a Dog, November 2005
Austin ranks 8th of America's Cleanest Cities by Reader's Digest, July 2005
Austin ranks 10th in the Top 10 Healthiest Cities in America by Sperling's, July 2006
Austin ranks 11th in the 25 Best Running Cities in America poll by Runners World, July 2005
Austin makes the cut as one of 50 Fabulous Gay-Friendly Places to Live by Gregory A. Kompes, December 2005
Austin ranks 2nd on Vegetarian Times' Ten Greenest Cities list, July/August 2005
Pollstar names Austin City Limits Music Festival the 'Festival of the Year' during it's annual Concert
Industry Awards, February 2006
American Way magazine features 'The Top 10 Lists of Great American Music' and Austin appears
on three of the lists including 'great music towns,' 'great bigger-is-better music festivals' for the Austin
City Limits Music Festival and 'sacred ground' for Threadgill's restaurant, June 2005
Austin ranks 6th in a study by Silicon Valley naming the nation's Top Tech Hubs. The study compared business
and quality-of-life issues, claiming Austin has affordable housing, electricity and state taxes, September 2005
Austin is among the Coolest Cities for Young Professionals according to Kiplinger.com, September 2005
Austin ranks 1st among U.S. cities in the fourth annual Mayors Challenge rankings of the Best
Cities for Future Business Locations by Management magazine
Each year, Intel ranks the Top 100 U.S. Cities and Regions with the Greatest Number of
Commercial and Public Wireless Internet Access Points and Austin ranks third, October 2006
Austin ranks 3rd in a list of America's Most Innovative Cities by the Wall Street Journal - What They Are Saying About AustinAustin again makes Men's Journal's list of '50 Best Places to Live'- this time at number 35. The city also received the 'Best Nightlife' accolade, beating out New York City; was third on the city with the 'Best Women'; fourth 'Fastest Growing Cities' and fifth 'Smartest' city.
Men's Journal, 4/06
American Style magazine chooses Austin eighth as a 'Top 25 US Arts Destination'.
American Style, 6/06
Austin-based companies, Whole Foods Market (ranked 30) and National Instruments (ranked 40) make Fortune magazine's list of '100 Best Companies to Work For.'
Fortune, 1/05
Austin came in sixth in a study by Silicon Valley naming the nation's top tech hubs. THe study compared business and quality-of-life issues, claiming Austin has affordable housing electricity and state taxes.
Silicon Valley, 9/05
The Austin area ranked third on Forbes magazine's 'Best Places' for business and careers, giving the Capital City high marks for education attainment, net migration to the area and the cost of doing business in the region.
Forbes, 5/05
Austin again makes an appearance on Forbes magazine's 'The Top 10 Places for Business' - this time ranking third.
Forbes, 5/04
Visa USA Inc.'s 2004 'Innovation Index' names Austin first on the 'Top 10 Places Where Ideas Happen'.
Visa USA Inc., 2004
According to Dog Fancy, Austin is one of the top 10 cities to be a dog.
Dog Fancy, 11/06
Each year, Intel ranks the top 100 U.S. Cities and regions with the greatest number of commercial and public wireless Internet access points and Austin ranks third.
Intel, 10/05
Austin earns the number two spot on Vegetarian Times' 'Ten Greenest Cities' list.
Vegetarian Times, 7/06, 9/06
Austin is number one for the second consecutive year on Hispanic magazine's, 'Top 10 Cities for Hispanics to Live In' list.
Hispanic, 8/06
Runner's World names Austin11th of the '25 Best Running Cities in America'. (July 2005) and 'the Coolest Host City' for the annual Motorola Marathon.
Runner's World, 1/04
The American Hiking Society named the Barton Creek Greenbelt number two on its 'top 10 walking trails'. Each of the trails named can be completed in 60 to 90 minutes and are within 10 to 15 miles of a major metro area.
American Hiking Society, 5/05
The city proves it's a world-class destination for 'fat-tire fun', when Men's Journal makes Austin's trails #2 on its list of 'The Ten Best Fall Mountain Bike Rides'.
Men's Journal
Austin ranks eighth of 'America's CLeanest Cities,' according to Reader's Digest.
Reader's Digest, 7/05
MovieMaker magazine names Austin as number two in its 'Top 10 Cities for MovieMakers,' an annual ranking of the 'best cities for independents to live and make movies.' The Capital City has appeared on this notable list for five consecutive years.
MovieMaker, Winter, 2004
Austin ranks Highest in Homebuyer Satisfaction. Customer satisfaction is based on 10 factors, including warranty and customer services, home readiness, sales staff, construction manager, quality of workmanship and materials, price and value, physical design elements, builder's design center, recreational facilities, and location.
J.D. Power and Associates survey, 9/05
For the third straight year, Austin ranks in the top three places among the 150 metro area ranked by Forbes magazine on such criteria as Business Costs, Living Costs, Number of Engineers, Crime Rates, Job Growth, and Employment Rates.
Forbes, 5/05
Austin ranked #2 Large Market for Families to Relocate. Among criteria considered were cost of living, taxes, home costs/appreciation, schools, climate, commute times, out-of-state tuition rules at local universities, and regulation of long-term care facilities. Only Washington D.C. rated higher than Austin.
www.erc.org 5/05
Austin comes in #6 in Sustainable US Cities Rating. SustainLane.com based its sustainability ratings on a survey of 25 cities in 12 major categories. Among t items examined were clean air, clean water, local foods, and city revitalization employing green building techniques as well as ways cities were addressing such global issues as climate change, loss of biodiversity and environmental toxins.
www.sustainlane.com, 6/05
Kiplinger's Your Money named Austin one of 'seven locations that are perfect for young professionals'. These cities all have a healthy head count of people under 30 and a solid or improving job market.
Your Money, 10/05
Manpower ranked Austin #10 in its Four Quarter 2005 Employment Outlook Survey. The recruiting company's survey of employers showed that 41 percent of Austin area companies planned to hire more employees and none expected to reduce their payrolls.
www.manpower.com, 9/05
Yahoo HotJobs Lists Austin in Top Ten cities for work-life balance. The online recruiter compiled its list using its own research and data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics comparing population growth, cost of living, access to medical care, average commute times, and availability of recreational activities.
YahooInc.HotJobs, 10/05
According to Forbes magazine, only Virginia is a better place to conduct business than Texas. The Lone Star State was rated among the best in population growth, transportation, tort climate and cost of living. It also has the largest number of companies with $1 billion in sales.
Forbes 08/06 - Austin Top 10 Lists10 BEST BIG CITIES
CNN.Money.com
1. Colorado Springs, CO
2. Austin, TX
3. Mesa, AZ
4. Raleigh, NC
5. San Diego, CA
6. Virginia Beach, VA
7. Omaha, NE
8. Columbus, OH
9. Wichita, KS
10. New York, NY
50 SMART PLACES TO LIVE
Kiplinger.com
1. Nashville, TN
2. Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN
3. Albuquerue, NM
4. Atlanta, GA
5. Austin, TX
6. Kansas City
7. Asheville, NC
8. Ithaca, NY
9. Pittsburgh, PA
10. Iowa City, IA
TOP 50 SMARTEST CITIES
Austin Business Journal
1. Seattle, WA
2. San Francisco, CA
3. Austin, TX
4. Colorado Springs, CO
5. Minneapolis, MN
TOP 10 CITIES FOR WALKING
Prevention Magazine
1. Portland, OR
2. Colorado Springs, CO
3. Madison, WI
4. Boise CIty, ID
5. Las Vegas, NV
6. Austin, TX
7. Virginia Beach, NC
8. Anchorage, AK
9. Fremont, CA
10. Raleigh, NC
TOP 10 CITIES FOR MOVIEMAKERS
MovieMaker Magazine
1. New York, NY
2. Austin, TX
3. Philadelphia, PA
4. New Orleans, LA
5. Portalnd, OR
6. Chicago, IL
7. Los Angeles, CA
8. Miami, FL
9. Baltimore, MD
10. Orlando, FL
THE 50 CLEANEST CITIES IN AMERICA
Readers Digest
1. Portland, OR
2. San Jose, CA
3. Buffalo, NY
4. Columbus, OH
5. San Francisco, CA
6. Denver CO
7. Rochester, NY
8. Austin, TX
9. Orlando, FL
10. San Diego, CA
TOP 10 HEALTHIEST CITIES IN AMERICA
Sperling's
1. San Jose, CA
2. Washington, DC
3. San Francisco, CA
4. Seattle-Bellvue, CA
5. Salt Lake CIty, UT
6. Oakalnd, CA
7. Sacramento, CA
8. Orange County, CA
9. Denver, CO
10. Austin, TX
TOP 10 WIRELESS CITIES
LiveScience.com
1. Seattle-Bellvuew-Everett-Tacoma, WA
2. San Fransisco-San Jose-Oakland, CA
3. Austin, TX
4. Portland, OR & Vancouver, WA
5. Toledo, OH
6. Atlanta, GA
7. Denver, CO
8. Raleigh-Durham, NC
9. Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN
10. Orange County, CA
TOP 10 HOT CITIES FOR ENTREPRENEURS
Entrepreneur.com
1. Phoenix-Mesa, AZ
2. Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC
3. Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
4. Las Vegas, NV-AZ
5. Indianapolis, IN
6. Washington-Baltimore, DC-MD-VA-WV
7. Atlanta, GA
8. Nashville, TN
9. Austin-San Marcos, TX
10. Memphis, TN-AR-MS
TOP 10 METROS FOR FUTURE BUSINESS
Expansion Magazine
1. Austin-Round Rock, TX
2. Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WIS
3. Raleigh-Cary, NC
4. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
5. Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land, TX
6. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-WVA
7. Madison, WIS
8. Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
9. Pittsburgh, PA
10. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ - Austin '5 Best Places to Sell a HomeHome sales are in a slump, but not everywhere. These five cities, because of lack of room to overbuild or a population influx, are still seller's markets.
By Matt Woolsey, Forbes.com
Forbes.com slide show: Top seller's markets Housing crunch makes moving workers rough Don't let your yard sabotage home sale If you've got property for sale, chances are you're in a bind:
Nationwide, prices for existing homes keep falling, and new homes started a few years ago continue to come on the market, increasing inventory.
On top of that, the fallout from subprime lending, the subsequent tightening of credit and lending standards and the recent rise in long-term Treasury yields have shrunk the pool of eligible buyers.
Yet, not every market follows national trends, and despite the industry's overall problems, there are still cities where sellers have the upper hand. The best way to judge a buyer's versus a seller's market is a simple supply-demand analysis of housing
stock: At the current rate of sales, how long would it take to sell off the inventory of single-family homes or condos? If that measure comes back high, houses sit on the market longer. If it is low, the market is tightening, which is good news for the seller.
The methodology
To measure inventory glut, we used Moody's Economy.com and National Association of Realtors data that tracked a market's current sales rate by projecting the amount of time it would take to sell off the excess housing stock at the current rate of sales.
We also looked at the change in sales rate over the past year to measure the relative tightening or loosening of the market.
Finally, a measure of price stability was applied so as to prevent the list from being a rundown of upstart markets.
More on MSN and Forbes.com
The downside of real-estate sales incentives
Forbes.com: How much home $1 million buys in the U.S.
Find a superstar real-estate agent
Talk about it: What are your 2007 market predictions?
Forbes.com: Most expensive states to insure a home MSN Money: Forecasters see housing slump persisting
Video: Home price forecasts
The measurements left out a few cities that lacked comprehensive data. Seattle, for example, has incredibly strong market fundamentals -- the lowest vacancy rate of major metros at 0.9% and a small geographic area not conducive to overproduction. It is a good seller's market, but for tracking what we were after, Seattle data were incomplete for our analysis.
The top tier
Moody's Economy.com chief economist Mark Zandi points out that the best-performing markets are those that had barriers to overproduction during the housing boom.
In the case of San Francisco, which ranked second on our list, it's an issue of geography: There is little space for growth or new development, and the local government doesn't do much to encourage new construction.
Strong in-migration stemming from local economic strength is another factor keeping demand high. New houses being built isn't a problem if new people are moving to town.
This scenario is playing out in Raleigh, N.C., the No. 1 city on our list. Moderate growth and disciplined building over the past five years prevented the market from developing a significant glut. Additionally, a strong local economy has helped contribute to the city's healthy 1.6% vacancy rate.
What's more, the rate of home sales against home inventory was healthy in Raleigh; in this category, it ranked fifth best of big cities, according to Moody's metrics. Even though the market has low vacancy to begin with and displayed strong construction restraint during the housing boom, Raleigh still has the eighth-best rate of tightening.
Similarly, strong in-migration and local economic pop make Austin, Texas, a seller's market. It finished fourth overall in sales rate to inventory size and has the fifth-best home-price appreciation figures of the large markets Moody's measured. Its mediocre 14th-best market-tightening ranking can be attributed, in large part, to its small inventory excess. Austin's vacancy rate is 1.5%, which is also where the national average stood during the most recent housing boom. In other words, that low a vacancy rate indicates a housing market at close to full capacity.
While the market isn't going gangbusters for investment, sellers in these markets are faring much better than their counterparts across the country.
Top cities for home sellers:
Raleigh, N.C.
San Francisco
Austin, Texas
San Antonio
St. Louis
Website:www.Forbes.com
